An Overview of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 Degrees of Warming (Part 2)

Following on Part 1 of our blog on the recent IPCC special report related to climate change, this blog (Part 2) focuses on the path forward and is written by Maggie Zeh, senior at Rock Canyon High School. Maggie worked with Lotus as part of her senior career exploration coursework. She is passionate about the environment and interested in pursuing a career in sustainability. Maggie plans to continue following these passions this fall at the University of Michigan, where she will major in Environmental Science. Lotus wishes Maggie all the best in her future endeavors!

Photo by Jeff King on Unsplash

Emission Pathways and System Transitions Consistent with 1.5ºC Global Warming

In order to limit climate change to 1.5 ºC, anthropogenic CO2 emissions would need to decrease by 45% of 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. This is possible through renewable energy, feedstocks with sustainable diets, replacing GHG-intensive products with more natural ones, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Improved air quality and nearly immediate health benefits can be experienced by reducing non-CO2 emissions, including methane. Limiting global warming requires rapid transitions in energy, land, urban environments, infrastructure, and industrial systems which have never been done on such a wide scale. Renewable energy would have to provide 70%-85% of electricity in 2050 in order to limit warming to 1.5 ºC. Energy from coal would have to be almost entirely eliminated, while only 8% of electricity could come from natural gas. Recent improvements in renewable energy and storage indicate that such a transition could be attainable. Land use would also have to change, including devoting less land to agriculture or transitioning to more regenerative land management practices. This can be attained by ecosystem restoration and less resource-intensive diets. These necessary transitions could be inhibited by economic, institutional, and socio-cultural barriers.

           Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could help eventually achieve negative net emissions. This includes replanting forests, restoring land, carbon sequestration, and the capture and storage of carbon in the atmosphere. All of these result in a smaller amount of carbon dioxide in the air. Almost all pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 ºC utilize CDR to some extent. CDR would also be beneficial for improving biodiversity, soil quality, and food security.

Strengthening the Global Response in the Context of Sustainable Development and Social Justice

Limiting warming to 1.5 ºC can only be achieved if CO2 emissions start to decline very soon. At current rates, global warming of 3 ºC by 2100 can be expected. Sustainable development, the eradication of poverty, and the reduction of inequality will be easier and more attainable if warming is limited to 1.5 ºC. Sustainable development balances social well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. Mitigation efforts will be more feasible with strengthened governance, improved technology, and lifestyle changes. Adaptation methods have the potential to help the environment but could also be damaging if not properly carried out. Adaptation is most effective when its methods keep in mind economic and sustainable development. Adaptation which reduces emissions will typically result in significant cost savings. Pathways that include low energy demand, reduced material consumption, and less GHG-intensive diets have the most benefits for sustainable development and the least tradeoffs. Mitigation can pose economic risks for regions associated with high dependency on fossil fuels for revenue. These challenges can be addressed by policies that promote diversification of the economy and the energy sector. To limit risks to sustainable development and poverty eradication, system transitions will need an increase of investments, policies, technology, and behavior changes. While confronting climate change, it is important to keep in mind social justice: create positive change without making certain groups of people worse off. Many pathways limiting climate change require international cooperation and the support of governments, civil society, the private sector, indigenous peoples, and local communities.

Conclusion

           There are many pathways which can be used to address the issue of climate change. Some changes are more necessary and will be more effective than others. Local governments around the world have very strong potential to address and mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change and are therefore uniquely positioned to take affective action in their policies and practices to address climate change. Technology is evolving and changing constantly, and this evolution and innovation will also play a key role in how climate change will be handled. New ways to carry out daily operations more sustainably will help make this as smooth of a transition as possible. It is entirely possible to limit climate change while also improving the quality of life for everyone, and this will be achieved most successfully if the entire global community participates.

IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In:Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)].World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32 pp.

More than the 'iGen', Part 1

This blog post is written by Maggie Zeh, a senior at Rock Canyon High School that is working with Lotus as part of her senior career exploration coursework. Maggie is passionate about the environment and interested in pursuing a career in sustainability.

 Today’s youth is the generation predicted to face the worst effects of climate change. While people working professionally in the fields of sustainability and climate action are driving many efforts on this impending issue, there are extensive examples of children and teens around the world taking matters into their own hands. Our impact can be seen on a local, national, and global scale. Our generation has lots of passion regarding climate change, and with the older, more experienced population as mentors, much can be achieved. It is imperative for all age groups to work together to address environmental concerns.

School Actions Inspire Students

 Action can be seen even on a local scale. Many high schools have some form of Eco Clubs, where students who are passionate about sustainability meet to help their schools reduce their environmental impact. These clubs can help their schools effectively recycle, obtain grant money for larger projects, and inspire other students to get involved. My own high school has made great progress towards being more sustainable. In the past few years, our biggest accomplishments include switching all lights in our gymnasium to LED bulbs and tinting all of the windows to reduce the need for heating and air conditioning. Currently, we are working on a project to compost in the cafeteria during lunchtime. These actions may seem small, but their impact is extremely positive.

Many teens are also inspired in their schools after learning about climate change in the classroom. AP Environmental Science is a very popular course among my peers, and it has inspired many students to act on climate change. This class was one of the major reasons why I personally became passionate about the environment and have begun to explore a career in sustainability. The other big component that inspired my passion was a safari trip to South Africa. This was a great learning experience for me on initiatives that must be taken and why environmental action is so important.

This is Zero Hour

 In today’s day and age, many young people are inspired by the momentum of other movements, such as the #NeverAgain campaign and the Women’s March, which seems to be drawing larger and larger crowds every year. One of the most outstanding groups of youth who have been inspired to take meaningful action is united under their coalition named Zero Hour. Their founders, who are all high school students, met at a summer program at Princeton University and instantly bonded over their dissatisfaction regarding lawmaker’s current initiatives to address climate change. They were determined to do something big that adults could not ignore. Since their beginning, they have been overwhelmed by the support they have received from people of all ages as well as various nonprofits group willing to sponsor their efforts. On the rainy day of July 21, 2018, hundreds of teens marched with Zero Hour on the National Mall to express their dedication to this cause. Their force was felt around the world as many sister marches also took place spanning from Denver to Kenya. They received lots of attention from the press, including the New York Times and even Teen Vogue. Zero Hour has made it clear that this was not a one-and-done production; they intend to continue speaking out until their platform has been satisfied.

Judicial Action

 Another driven group of young people have come together under the legal body Our Children’s Trust. These individuals are suing the federal government for allegedly violating their right to life, liberty, and prosperity. Their argument is that the government’s support for the fossil fuel industry is creating a future for younger generations that will put them in far worse situations than anyone has experienced before. Their ambitious demand includes a climate recovery plan that will bring the atmosphere down to 350 parts per million of carbon. Their belief is that young people currently have the most at stake because we will be the ones to witness any effects of climate change. This platform has inspired many young people from around the country to get involved and take a stand against climate change for the good of their own, and future, generations. The most recent court decision that has been made in this case is the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals’ grant to the young plaintiffs’ motion to expedite briefing. This court case, Julianna v. United States, began in 2015. It has been a long journey with many obstacles, but in 2019 they are still making progress towards their goal.

Stay tuned for Part 2 of this blog and Maggie’s further thoughts on how to engage youth in climate action.

Emerging Trends in the Transportation Sector

The transportation sector accounted for roughly 28 percent of the United States’ total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2016 and the majority of these emissions (60 percent) come from light-duty vehicles, like the car you likely drive to work every day. Given the significant share of national emissions that result from our daily driving habits and personal transportation activities, many cities and regional governments are exploring how to reduce transportation emissions through infrastructure planning and policy development. Investing in electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, increasing vehicle emissions standards, and using financial tools to encourage less fuel consumption will ensure cleaner vehicles and fewer emissions. Meanwhile, planners and engineers are beginning to consider what the fabric of our cities will look like as transportation modalities shift and reliance on a personal vehicle, in urban areas at least, will hopefully diminish. We are keeping an eye on several emerging trends that are likely to shape and define how communities work towards reducing their transportation-related emissions.

Electric Vehicle Policies and Incentives

The growth of the EV market over the past few years has been slowly but steadily increasing and is expected to continue to grow more rapidly and at exponential levels in the coming years; Morgan Stanley predicts that 80 percent of vehicles sold worldwide will be electric by 2050. Based on consumer feedback, the biggest deterrents to purchasing an EV (after increased sticker price over a traditional internal combustion engine) is limited range and access to charging stations. A less-cited concern is that most EVs on the market today are smaller cars, not the SUVs and pick-up trucks that many American consumers prefer to drive. Rivian Automotive hopes to change that by releasing the first-ever fully electric pick-up truck on the market by the end of 2020 (and Tesla plans on a pick-up prototype by mid-2019). Additionally, the public sector is investing in EV infrastructure that will hopefully mitigate consumer concerns about range anxiety and increase the speed of EV adoption. The State of Colorado’s EV Plan, released in January of this year, calls for building out the network of Level 3 charging stations (Level 3 stations are those that can provide a full charge in roughly 15 minutes) across the state and working cooperatively with other states in the Intermountain West Electric Corridor (which includes the states of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming and focuses on the main interstates in the region) to ensure a consistent user experience at these stations.

To further support EV adoption, cities and local governments are developing policies and incentive programs that will green their own fleets and make transitioning to an EV an easy choice for the average consumer. In November, Boulder County became the first local government in the country to adopt a GoEV Resolution that supports community-wide vehicle electrification. The resolution includes commitments to electrify the County’s fleet, support broad development of charging and EV infrastructure throughout the County, work with partners to electrify taxi and ride hailing fleets, and work with the Regional Transportation District and the Boulder Valley and St. Vrain Valley School Districts to electrify their transit and school bus fleets. New York City, Sacramento County, and other communities are also working towards transitioning their transit and school bus fleets to electric, and New York City’s three largest airports are also electrifying their diesel fleet. These organizations were encouraged by both the air quality and emissions reduction benefits of the electric vehicles, as well as the significant economic benefits of the switch. While the electric buses cost more upfront, transit operators are paying roughly 19 cents per mile to operate the EV buses, while a traditional diesel bus costs roughly 82 cents per mile. With 480,000 yellow school buses and another 65,000 public transit buses on the road currently, the potential to drastically cut emissions from these vehicles by replacing them with all-electric alternatives is significant. Of course, these emissions reductions are contingent upon the electric vehicles being charged on an electricity grid that is primarily carbon-free, which many cities are also working towards.

Vehicle Standards and Emissions Cap Programs

Many state governments are adopting or considering policies that will reduce vehicle emissions. In November 2018, Colorado became the most recent state to adopt California’s Low-Emissions Vehicle standards, joining 12 other states and the District of Columbia; this brings the share of new automobile purchases impacted by these regulations to 40 percent of the market. Colorado’s new standards will go into effect for the 2022 model year. Vehicle emissions standards have traditionally been effective in improving air quality and ensuring that vehicles become cleaner over the years, but some states are interested in how to directly target transportation emissions reductions through policy.

Nine Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia have collaborated through the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) to hold focus sessions and engage with hundreds of stakeholders throughout 2018, resulting in an announcement that the jurisdictions will design a regional low-carbon transportation policy proposal that would reduce transportation emissions through a cap-and-invest program and other pricing mechanisms. While many of the specific details of these programs are still in the works, the member states of TCI intend the program to be one in which the use of heavily polluting fossil fuels will incur a fee; the proceeds of the program would be provided to the member states to invest in low-carbon and more resilient transportation infrastructure systems. As the imposition of a fuel fee on producers and distributors would likely be passed onto the consumer at the pump, the TCI states will conduct further analysis and invite comments from stakeholders to ensure that the burden of this policy does not negatively impact low-income populations and creates opportunities for jobs and economic growth. TCI states may also consider the design and implementation of complimentary policies regarding land use and infrastructure planning to ensure the designed programs have the greatest positive benefit in terms of emissions reductions possible.

Autonomous Vehicles, Ride Sharing, and Modality Shifts

While there is quite a bit of debate about what the urban landscapes of our future will look like and how people will travel to and through them, there is general consensus that the rise of autonomous vehicles (AVs), ride sharing, and alternative mobility options (like e-bikes and e-scooters) will fundamentally change how we move through and interact with our built environments. Given the relatively rapid transition that our transportation infrastructure is likely to experience, many communities are not prepared for the impact of AVs and modality shifts on the fabric of their urban cores—in a review of the transportation plans of the 68 most populous cities in the U.S., only 6 percent of these communities have transportation plans that address self-driving cars, and the vast majority had planning horizons for 2030 and beyond.

Most projections show that fully automated vehicles will be available to the consumer market by 2025, with on-road testing already occurring in some cities; between this and the continued increase in adoption of ride-hailing (e.g. Lyft, Uber) and ride-sharing (e.g. UberPool and LyftLine) transportation services among urban residents, cities and developers are re-thinking the urban landscape. It is clear that the way that people get around is changing, and even models of traditional personal vehicle ownership are evolving through personal car rental services like Turo (think AirBnB for your car). In some cases, cities are relaxing the parking requirements for new urban developments and architects are designing buildings with parking structures that can be easily converted to office or retail space once the need for parking is diminished. This could mean that urban land previously dedicated to parking can be redeveloped more densely once that parking isn’t needed; alternatively, the more pleasant commute in a self-driving car (as opposed to one you have to drive yourself) may mean that people will be willing to travel further for work and other activities, further increasing urban sprawl.

In addition to changing patterns of vehicle use, cities and states are trying to understand how to regulate newer multi-modal transportation options like electric scooters and bikes. These modes are gaining popularity among young people and urban dwellers specifically, and the option to use multiple modes of transportation to reach a destination (e.g. scooter to a bus stop, ride the bus, pick up a ride share to the final destination) is beginning to outweigh the benefits of personal vehicle ownership for many people. While shifting from owning a personal vehicle to ride-hailing alone will not lead to a reduction in emissions, shifting the way that people get around and specifically increasing the use of ride-sharing transit services and multi-modal options will likely lead to not only reduced transportation emissions, but also reduced road congestion. In order to increase adoption of these modes, which generally may require more effort and time on the part of the individual, cities and regional governments can work to develop carrot and stick policies that encourage more people to reduce their time in a single occupancy vehicle and discover alternative transportation options.

As transportation activities represent a huge share of global GHG emissions and therefore contribute significantly to climate change, the potential to mitigate this impact through smart policy and planning practices at the local level cannot be understated. The team at Lotus loves to explore innovative and impactful transportation policies and projects that will reduce GHG emissions with our clients, and we remain committed to providing the most up-to-date and relevant insights on policies, projects, and programs that will have a net positive impact on community emissions. Using localized data and information unique to each community we can help to develop policies and programs, model the impact of these efforts, and support the implementation of effective emissions reduction activities.

100% Renewable Commitments, Part 2: Key Strategies for Success

In our last blog post, we discussed the growing trend towards communities committing to 100% renewable energy, and why this is becoming a common climate action strategy. In this post we will discuss the key strategies that will allow communities that have made this commitment to see success.

The Roadmap to 100%

The strategies and steps that communities and businesses can take to commit to 100% renewable energy will inevitably vary by the geographic area, policy and regulatory environment, and flexibility in approach. There are, however, a set of established steps that are recommended to consider when starting towards this ambitious goal:

• Don’t forget about efficiency

Alongside pursuing renewable energy, it is recommended to reduce actual energy consumption as much as possible. For local communities, this may look like energy audits and retrofits in publicly-owned facilities, as well as loan and grant programs that encourage private building and home owners to make upgrades and retrofits. The impact that building codes have on efficiency should not be overlooked—where possible, setting prescriptive building standards and/or “beyond code requirements” that require new buildings, or buildings with major upgrades, to be built to a certain level of efficiency will ensure that as the community grows, its energy consumption may grow at a slower rate. While at times the upfront cost to implement energy efficiency projects can be very high, having a lean and efficient building portfolio will require less renewable energy overall to offset the energy usage. Supporting energy efficiency measures also provides secondary benefits to both communities and individual building and home owners, such as lower energy costs in the long-term. It should be noted, however, that renewable energy projects tend to have a quicker impact on emissions and climate action strategies than energy efficiency programs, which tend to take longer to implement and result in significant change.

• Begin small generation projects, and grow these over time

Communities and companies that own many physical assets, such as buildings, landfills, and parks, may have the opportunity to make productive use of these assets via roof-top and ground-mounted solar, small-scale wind, and geothermal systems. These projects may generate enough energy to offset electricity consumption for publicly-owned facilities and municipal activities. Over time, as more energy uses are transitioned to electricity (see below), these assets can expand to allow for additional power generation. However, it should be noted that though this piecemeal approach may be more politically palatable and easier to implement, small-scale renewable energy projects are generally more expensive (over the long-term) to implement than larger, utility-scale renewable energy projects.

• Transition away from non-electric fuel uses

Once the grid begins to be powered by more renewable energy, its potential to impact emissions from traditionally non-electric sources in the stationary and mobile sectors grows. By electrifying energy-consumption sectors that traditionally are not powered by electricity, we allow for the possibility that these sectors can be powered by renewable energy. Many communities that are striving towards 100% renewable energy in all sectors are considering the importance of electrifying the heating of buildings, encouraging or mandating a switch to all-electric vehicles in city fleets and for the public, and of switching other equipment as necessary to electricity. As the mix of fuels, and therefore the emissions levels, that power grids across the country can vary widely, this strategy is most effective at reducing emissions and advancing a community’s climate action strategy when they have access to a greener grid that is powered by renewable and low-carbon resources.

• Communicate and collaborate

The importance of collaborating with the local utility and wholesale power providers, with local businesses and companies that have a renewable generation goal, and with non-profit organizations that are focused on bringing renewables to market, cannot be overlooked. By engaging a variety of stakeholders in the discussion, opportunities may be presented that previously were not feasible—perhaps a closed landfill can be an ideal site for a community solar array, or a partnership with a local university and renewable generation company can allow for technological research and development while providing power to a community.

Achieving 100% renewable energy is a noble and challenging goal, and the specific approach for each community will look different. If your community or business is interested in going 100% renewable for electricity or all energy sectors, please reach out to us, as we would be happy to help you develop a plan that is tailored to be effective for your unique community and goals

100% Renewable commitments are becoming a common climate action strategy

Across the country, communities and businesses are signaling their commitment to climate action and a cleaner future by pledging to becoming 100% renewable. While their motivations are diverse, and the methods to achieving 100% renewable energy vary widely, the number of pledges continue to grow, and the effect that this will have on long-term climate impacts and emissions inventories is significant. A few of Lotus’ clients have committed or are considering committing to 100% renewable energy and this has inspired us to share some of what we have learned.

We would like to offer the following information and points of consideration for those communities and organizations that are interested in taking on this impressive commitment. This blog will be posted in two parts, where the first will provide an overview of what a 100% renewable goal means. The second post will detail what a roadmap to 100% renewable energy could look like and how your community can succeed in going 100% renewable.

What does ‘100% Renewable’ mean?

Through the Sierra Club’s Ready for 100% program, the Climate Reality Project’s 100% Committed program, and the RE100 initiative for businesses, the commitment to going 100% renewable is growing. While both the Sierra Club and the Climate Reality Project pledges are for a commitment to pursue 100% renewable energy in general, many communities see a move towards 100% renewable electricity as the first step in this process. It is important to note that the terms “100% Renewable Energy” and “100% Renewable Electricity” describe two different outcomes; and therefore, two different sets of strategies to achieve those outcomes. While the terms are often used interchangeably, “100% Renewable Electricity” refers specifically to the transition of the electricity sector to provide energy only from renewable resources (e.g. solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and battery storage). Taking this concept one step further, “100% Renewable Energy” refers to sourcing energy from all sectors from renewable resources—this includes the electricity, stationary fuel (i.e. natural gas and diesel), and transportation sectors. Many communities that have pledged to becoming 100% renewable are focusing on the electricity sector first. The Sierra Club recommends setting a goal of obtaining 100% renewable Electricity by 2035, and 100% Renewable Energy for all sectors by 2050. Further, the organization recommends including a local generation target, and focusing on collaboration with other local communities and public-private partnerships to achieve the goal.

It is further important to note that the transition to 100% renewable electricity and 100% renewable energy will be an important strategy for communities and businesses that are striving to significantly reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. While these efforts will not completely reduce emissions, the vast majority of emissions in the U.S. are a result of electricity consumption, which can be offset with renewable energy. In addition, as the electric grid becomes cleaner, stationary heating fuels (e.g. natural gas and propane) and mobile fuels (e.g. gasoline and diesel) can be replaced with electricity, further reducing building sector and transportation emissions.

By transitioning these resources to renewable energy, communities and businesses can see significant gains towards their emissions reductions targets.

Local communities are leading the way

Over 160 U.S. mayors or town/city managers have signed the Sierra Club’s Mayors for 100% Clean Energy pledge, and many other counties have made an equivalent local commitment. The factors that have led communities to make this commitment vary from energy independence and local economic development to climate commitment and action.

In Greensburg, Kansas, transitioning to 100% renewable energy was a logical step to ensure long-term community resiliency after the town was nearly leveled by a tornado in 2007. By rebuilding the town with a focus on energy efficiency, small-scale solar, wind, and geothermal the community achieved 100% renewable electricity in 2013. In return, the town has effectively harvested the wind that nearly destroyed it to rebuild itself stronger for future generations.

Larger communities are also pursuing and achieving 100% renewable goals as well: Aspen, Colorado, achieved 100% renewable electricity in 2015. By utilizing wind power, energy efficiency measures, hydro-power, a small amount of landfill gas, and small scale solar thermal, Aspen has lead the way in the transition to fully renewable electricity. For Georgetown, Texas, in the heart of oil country, the decision to commit to 100% renewable electricity stemmed from a desire to obtain long-term low-cost and low-risk energy for city municipal customers. The City-owned utility established a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) in 2008 of 30% by 2030 and in 2012 bumped that goal up to 100% when low-cost and low-risk solar and wind bids were presented that significantly beat out fossil fuel prices. In this drought-prone part of Texas, renewable energy has the added benefit that it does not require the large amounts of water for production that is typically required by traditional fossil fuels.

While some communities, like Ithaca, New York, are achieving their 100% renewable goals through the purchase of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) on the open market, others are taking a more direct approach. San Diego and San Jose are both working towards Community Choice Aggregation, whereby communities may buy and/or generate electricity for their communities by working directly with wholesale power providers. Others, like Burlington, Vermont, are encouraging energy efficiency and smart building processes while also pursuing renewable energy projects and policies. The switch to 100% renewable can save communities money as well: Burlington, which sources its power from 30% biomass woodchip burning, 20% landfill methane, wind, and solar, and 50% hydropower, anticipates that it will save $20 million over the next 20 years over the cost of traditional fossil fuels.